Optimism Bias in Planning: The Ill-Fated Invasion of Russia

Napoleon Bonaparte stood before his gathered officers in the grand hall of the Tuileries Palace, his voice resolute. "Gentlemen, within five months, we will be in Moscow, and Tsar Alexander will have no choice but to surrender. Our Grande Armée is the finest in history—victory is assured."

The room erupted in applause. The campaign against Russia, launched in June 1812, was meticulously planned. Napoleon’s forces, numbering over 600,000 men, were expected to quickly overwhelm Russian defenses. His strategy accounted for swift movements, supply lines, and decisive battles. What he failed to account for was his own optimism bias.

Initially, all went according to plan. The Grande Armée advanced deep into Russian territory, winning battles and pushing the Russian army back. However, the vast distances and poor infrastructure of Russia made resupply increasingly difficult. Napoleon had assumed that he could feed his army with local provisions, but the Russians adopted a scorched-earth policy, destroying resources before the French could seize them.

By September, Napoleon reached Moscow, only to find it nearly abandoned. Instead of surrendering, the Russians set the city on fire. Napoleon had assumed capturing Moscow would force Tsar Alexander to negotiate peace. Instead, the Russian army remained intact, and winter was approaching.

Napoleon had not adequately planned for the brutal Russian winter. As temperatures plummeted, his soldiers lacked sufficient food, clothing, and shelter. The same roads that had brought them east now turned into death traps. Starvation, frostbite, and relentless Cossack raids decimated the retreating army.

By the time the remnants of the Grande Armée staggered back into friendly territory, fewer than 50,000 of the original force remained. The catastrophic loss shattered Napoleon’s aura of invincibility and marked the beginning of his downfall.

Napoleon’s failure to plan for worst-case scenarios and his assumption that events would unfold as expected is a classic example of optimism bias (also, hubris). His unwavering belief in a swift victory blinded him to the logistical, environmental, and strategic challenges that ultimately led to one of history’s most disastrous military campaigns.

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