Decision Making Strategy: The Poker Hand That Defied Outcome

At a high-stakes poker tournament in Las Vegas, Annie Duke recalled one particular hand that vividly illustrated why “resulting” is a flawed way to evaluate decisions. During that pivotal hand, she was dealt a promising pair and noticed subtle cues in her opponent’s betting pattern that suggested a possible bluff. After carefully weighing the odds and considering the pot size, Annie made what she believed was a solid, well-informed call—even though the decision carried risk.

In that moment, every piece of available information pointed toward a favorable outcome. Her decision-making process was methodical and rational. Yet, as the community cards were revealed, fortune took an unexpected twist. While the turn card appeared to improve her position, the river card delivered a surprise: her opponent's hand transformed into a flush that overtook her pair. The hand ended in a loss.

Immediately after, critics and onlookers, fixated solely on the final result, argued that her call had been a mistake. They said, “If it turned out badly, then the decision must have been bad.” But Annie knew better. Despite the loss, her decision had been sound given the information and probabilities at the time. The unfavorable outcome wasn’t due to a flawed decision-making process—it was a consequence of the inherent uncertainty and randomness of the game.

This experience became a vivid illustration of what Annie Duke calls “resulting” in her book Thinking in Bets. It’s the error of judging a decision’s quality solely by its outcome, rather than by the reasoning behind it. In environments like poker—or in life and business—good decisions can sometimes lead to bad outcomes, and vice versa, simply because luck plays its part.

Annie Duke uses this story to highlight an essential lesson for anyone in project management or decision-making: it’s not the occasional outcome that defines a decision’s quality, but the soundness of the process behind it. In this unpredictable world, the true measure of good decision-making is not whether every bet wins, but whether you’re consistently making well-informed, rational choices that set you up for long-term success.

What’s your project decision making framework and how are you ensuring the quality of your decisions are not framed by “resulting”?